The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and metho...
The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and methodology, others…not so much. And then there are the poll averages.
The widely reported Real Clear Politics’ last poll average prior to Election Day had Republican Roy Moore up by 2.2% over Democrat Doug Jones. The final results will likely have Jones winning by roughly 1.5%. Is this a polling problem or a reporting problem? We talk this over with Amy Walter, National Editor of the Cook Political Report and then discuss the implications of the Alabama results on the 2018 midterm elections. Will President Donald Trump’s enduring unpopularity catch up with Republicans in Congress? Can Democrats take advantage of the current climate? Will Trump change course?