Poll Hub

Election Forecasts Are NOT Polls But Are Valuable

Episode Summary

Next stop: Arizona and Pennsylvania! Our poll results are in and we dive deep into the data to explain what we're seeing. Then, Dan Rosenheck from The Economist talks about the difference between election polls and election forecasts (rain helps explain it), and what his forecasting model says at the 2022 midterms. We end with a Fun Fact about age and real estate -- where do you want to end up?

Episode Notes

Our battleground state polling continues, as we take a look at Arizona and Pennsylvania. In one way, little has changed in Arizona since the nail-biting 2020 results, as the Governor's race is nearly dead even. But what is different is what appears to be ticket splitters giving the Senate contest a very different look. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is looking pretty solidly blue, as Democratic candidates in both races lead with considerable margins. We have looked through the data to understand what groups in each state are driving the divergent results.

Next, it's all about predicting the future as we focus on polls and forecasts. We're joined by Data Editor for The Economist (@TheEconomist), Dan Rosenheck (@DanRosenheck), who easily switches between detailed explanations of how he's built the publication's election forecast model for the midterms to why so many people misunderstand how forecasts differ dramatically from polls. And, he gives the odds on Aaron Judge beating Roger Maris's record.

Finally, let's face the (fun) facts- growing old is a part of the road trip of life, but where will you end up? Do people retire to the place they want to or the place that just makes sense?