Poll Hub

How Polls Did in the 2022 Midterms

Episode Summary

Now that the votes are in and mostly counted, how did we do? We're looking at our results and those of other pollsters. We're also talking about how poll products like forecasters and aggregators misled people about the likelihood of a red wave. Finally, we head to a simpler time when pollsters asked about...THIS product?

Episode Notes

We made it! Election Day is behind us and most of the votes have been counted, so, now it's time to see how WE did. Our final polls showed close races and we were on the money. We discuss how we changed how we poll in order to adapt to a changing world and how that may have made our polls more accurate. We're also sorting through the rubble of the massive number of new and/or untested polls that flooded many states late in the game. Did they change the narrative this year for better or worse?

Speaking of which, how did all those polls get rolled up and incorporated into the aggregators and forecasters that have become so popular with political pundits and reporters? This was NOT a good cycle for them and we explain why. Plus, how those arguing for the politeratti that give more weight to the early vote data were proven correct.

And, we POLISH up this week's episode with an interesting one from the halcyon bygone fifties. What item were people buying in grocery stores, five & dimes, and shoe stores? And why does Lee think about football when he hears about it?