Since the debate, there have been a lot of election polls, but are they painting an accurate picture? Then, is America really prepared for disaster? Well, after recent events, we might not be as ready as we think! What does summer smell like? This week's fun fact is highly debated.
There has been a whirlwind of post-debate polling around Biden vs. Trump, but how accurate are they? We have @FiveThirtyEight's @gelliottmorris on with us to sort the good from the bad...and all the in-between.
Next, natural disasters only seem to be increasing with climate change, but are we prepared to give people warnings about them? We have @k_e_gray @unewhaven on to talk about our potential vulnerabilities as a nation facing disasters.
And, as summer hits its stride, step outside. Do you smell sunscreen, grass, or bbq? This week's fun fact tackles the smells of summer.
JWD: This time on Poll Hub, we're talking polls. Hey, there's a surprise. Specifically, the post debate polls that have gotten so much attention from the political media. What do they actually tell us? We're talking with G. Elliott Morris from FiveThirtyEight. We're going to figure it all out.
JWD: Then, you know those text alerts warning you of an emergency, or an Amber Alert? Well, it turns out they do save a lot of lives, but they can also sow confusion, as happened recently. We're asking if they can do all they claim to. And we finished with the smells of summer. No, not what New Yorkers think of when we say that.
JWD: Good smells! Which is the fave? Stick around to find out. And hi everybody, welcome to Poll Hub, I'm Jay DeDapper.
JWD: I'm Barbara Carvalho.
MEG: I'm
MEG: Mary Griffith.
LMM: And I'm Lee Miringoff.
LMM: In case you missed it this presidential election cycle has been a rollercoaster ride filled with Potentially cataclysmic twist turns, free falls.
LMM: In case you missed it, Donald Trump has been convicted on felony charges. Joe Biden, to put it mildly, did not exactly [00:01:00] perform well in the recent presidential debate. The question is how much does this matter with voters? We're very happy to have back. With us, G. Elliott Morris, Editorial Director of Data Analytics at ABC, including FiveThirtyEight and author of the still very useful Strength in Numbers, How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.
LMM: Elliott, thank you for joining us again. When election year comes around, we know who to call. So thank you for joining
Elliott Morris: Well, I'm thrilled to be here. Thanks, guys.
LMM: let's start off. I guess the big question right off the bat before we get into the nitty gritty is what do you make of where things stand right now? As the, you know, we're coming in the middle of all what's going on and then heading right into the Republican convention just around the corner.
LMM: So what do you make of this presidential race at the moment?
Elliott Morris: Well, at 538, we think the election is pretty close. And that's for two big reasons. Now, if you only look at the polls, things look to be tilting toward Trump. He [00:02:00] has a two percentage point or so lead in the national polls. He's ahead in the average swing state by closer to an average of three points.
Elliott Morris: And if those numbers continue until election day, he'll have a pretty good chance of winning. We can run our election model as if today were election day and that percentage point, a Trump probability and what we would call a now cast, right? Just pretending today. is election day, we'd be closer to like 85 percent or so.
Elliott Morris: so a pretty, strong edge. However as we're all well aware, today is not election day, neither is tomorrow. It's about five months away still. So there's time for polls to change. And we can talk about exactly how much we think they might change, but the very fact of the matter is that there's time for campaign events to change people's minds, for news covers to change people's minds and we don't have a lot of polls uh, in many of the key swing states from super reputable pollsters.
Elliott Morris: So, if you take all of that into account, then there is still a pretty good chance that Biden would win. Our forecast gives him uh, around one in two shot today. [00:03:00] So both candidates uh, in a very close race.
BLC: so aside from the polls, what is it about your model itself? And explain to our listeners, you know, what is the difference and what makes the difference between what we're seeing in the polls and then how you're interpreting it and modeling it.
Elliott Morris: Well, as y'all are very quick to remind people, polls are just snapshots in time, right? And at 538, you know, we also run polling aggregation models to combine all of those snapshots. On any given day on all matters of public opinion. Now, of course, the one that's most relevant now is the general election, horse race numbers, Trump versus Biden versus the other candidates.
Elliott Morris: And those snapshots that y'all release are pretty good. And when you aggregate them in general, they're a lot better. But they're only so useful when an election is taking place in the future. And if you want to take into account other data, like economic indicators or how a state has voted.
Elliott Morris: In the past. Essentially, we think that there's just other information out there that influences who's [00:04:00] going to win an election. Those being time and other data. So we use the polls in combination with those other indicators. And that's kind of why we do the forecasts to explain the uncertainty predicting an election from any, you know, in any time horizon, any point of view of the campaign.
LMM: are you finding this more uncertain environment or less uncertain environment than in recent presidential elections?
Elliott Morris: That's a good question. In our forecasting model, we assume that every election has same baseline of volatility, and that baseline is set to the historical average going back to 1948. So, we allow for, you know, a pretty sizable amount of change in the polls over the course of the election. Other forecasters think that there is less change.
Elliott Morris: volatility in the campaigns now due to factors like polarization and having more polls. And while that is true early on in the campaign once we get past you know, past September, we have a pretty good historical supply of polls and things do tend to move around a good amount still. So, what ends up happening in [00:05:00] our forecasting model is we explore a little extra uncertainty early on.
Elliott Morris: So that we can have the right amount of uncertainty later, instead of having too little, which is, I think, something that other forecasting models might be doing but of course we're just kind of making guesses about the future. So if we dialed down the uncertainty a little bit uh, you could make that case to me based on there being two incumbents, you know, what have you, that's a sample size of one.
Elliott Morris: So I feel nervous making that, you know, assertion, but from a point of view of exploring the different models, I think that's valid too.
LMM: I'm old enough to remember when if someone was convicted on felony charges he'd be done. And if someone was did as badly as Joe Biden and where he stands on age issues as being fit or unfit for office, he'd be done. So what am I missing about the electorate right now?
LMM: That means this thing remains close unless they're both canceling each other out right now. So, It seems like the electorate is not, despite the uncertainty, is not moving around like it might in an earlier [00:06:00] era, perhaps.
Elliott Morris: Yeah, so let's just take '76 as an example, that's when some of our forecasting models start, and we like to use that year to define the beginning of kind of the modern presidency and polling age. Maybe I'll take some flack from historians for that. Back in 1976, if you had you know, an approval rating moved by about 4 or 5 percentage points for the incumbent, then the horse race top line would move by about four points.
Elliott Morris: Nowadays, an approval rating moving by four or five points translates to the top line moving by just one point. So there's a lot fewer floating voters on either side of the aisle, and even among the independents and moderates, people who tell us, you know, They don't want to vote, seem at least to be either stuck in that I'm not going to, or I don't know if I'm going to vote category, or have picked someone despite the fact that they have, you know, telling us their independence or moderate.
Elliott Morris: So, you know, with, I don't think you're missing anything. I think you know the answer, polarization, right? If you have more Republicans and Democrats who are, you know, just more strongly identifying with their party and more [00:07:00] committed to their candidate, then they will react less strongly. to news that is unfavorable toward their candidate or favorable toward the other one.
Elliott Morris: And so you get a little bit less reaction to news events in the way that we might think more normatively, you know, that these events should be causing a bigger reaction in public
BLC: You know, one of, you know, one of the issues, I think, as Democrats debate whether Biden should stay on the ticket and be the Democratic nominee is the concern that many people have about the down ballot races. Um, In the last couple of cycles, you know, we've seen a pretty straight ticket voting.
BLC: if a state supports the Democrat, the likelihood is that the Senate candidate in that state comes along with the President. That wasn't always the case, as you point to history. In fact split voting was a pretty significant thing in the past. Uh, Which is it this time?
BLC: Are we, Are the Democrats right to be concerned that Biden is going to weigh down the ticket for the Senate and the Congress.
Elliott Morris: Yeah we, we know that in presidential elections, because of this [00:08:00] decline in polarization, split ticket voting, that if you turn out more partisans based on the top of the ticket, you'll get outcomes. Lower down that match, you know, that more closely match that at least now compared to history. So look, it's like it's better for Democrats to have a more popular nominee than the one that they have.
Elliott Morris: So to the extent that they can change that, and I'm not making any prescriptions here, but to the extent that they could change that, then, you know, maybe that maybe they're right to be a little bit worried and want something else. But, um, we've written in 538 as well about this difference. They're actually being a very large difference between.
Elliott Morris: The Senate polls today in President Joe Biden's numbers, so, lots of Democrats in red states, Sherrod Brown, John Tester, for example, but also Democrats in blue states out polling him in places like Nevada and those polls could signal more split ticket voting, or they also could signal that there's lots of people out there who vote for Democrats and will probably vote for Joe Biden who are unhappy with him and are saying, you know, they might be saying they're not going to vote for him, but they will, that is a possibility, that's not something that we can rule out just With observational polling data.
Elliott Morris: Now, I wouldn't run my whole [00:09:00] campaign based on that idea that this was pretty dangerous,
LMM: You wouldn't bet the mortgage on that.
Elliott Morris: I wouldn't bet my mortgage on anything, but definitely I wouldn't do my political strategy based on sort of theories
LMM: We recently had elections in Europe, and the headlines were Surprise in England! Surprise in in France! Left or liberal candidates did far better than the expectations. Is there something going on with the polls over there that might mean something for what we're looking at.
LMM: Doesn't mean necessarily right or left, but just was there anything that you picked up that seemed a little odd that surprised people?
Elliott Morris: Well, not necessarily something odd, but something that we would see in America with a different political system is a fracturing of the political system. Of the, you know, of the party landscape, and increasing in support for ideologically extreme parties. We definitely saw that in France, and that's kind of been the theme of European politics for the past two decades, a decrease in support for the center and left right, sorry, the, yeah, the center-left and the center [00:10:00] right.
Elliott Morris: That definitely seems to be the case in America today depending on where you want to put Trump on the political, you know, in his political category, supporters certainly are more right leaning than the Republicans of two decades ago Democrats have moved less to the left, especially on policy preferences and so you can imagine if America had a multi party system that you'd get a similar right increase in, parliamentary or, you know, Proportional representation system, then support for the people we actually observe running the Democratic and Republican parties would probably be a lot lower.
BLC: You know, just a couple years ago Lee referred to the book that you wrote Strength in Numbers, how polls work and why we need them. And you do you talk historically about polls in your book and also make the case as to how they are very important for democracy. Do you still feel that way?
Elliott Morris: I I mean, there were, there was an unwritten epilogue for Strength in Numbers that didn't get published. We didn't want to include it because it cuts against, you know, the main thesis of the book, but also is probably a really good, second book. And the ground is pretty well trodden at [00:11:00] this point, but that is, you know, if your, theory about how democracy should work, or really if you're in a democracy, then your theory should be that the people should rule.
Elliott Morris: To some numerical definition, we use 50 percent rule. Plus one or plurality, depending on, right, depending on the electoral system and have indirect representation stacked on top of that. And we're like, you know, in America, we're magnifying the will of the people, however it may come, led by whoever may lead each party and by whichever media outlets and information that they digest.
Elliott Morris: And the counter-argument to this is that if they are poorly informed, then they'll make poor decisions, right? And especially if they're poorly led, then they'll end up with poor governance. That is, I think the probably strongest argument against. You know, using polls to magnify, you know, to give a megaphone to people in the halls of government, let's say, but fundamentally it's an argument against democracy.
Elliott Morris: But we. Sort of, maybe unfortunately for these people, fortunately for many others, live in a democracy today. And so, you have to accept that there will be maybe some downside risk while upholding sort of the [00:12:00] principle of self government. And really, there's not a great way around that.
Elliott Morris: 200 years ago, maybe we didn't have that risk in such an acute way as we do today, especially with sort of a rise of, you know, your demagoguery and authoritarianism on in several parts of the political spectrum today. But if you don't allow for that possibility by some other means of control over the people, then you don't allow them any sort of input over the democratic process.
Elliott Morris: So that is like a much stronger counter argument today against using polls. So the more romantic way than then I would have made. maybe 20 or 30 years ago. I know I've talked for a while. Here's just one more thing though. Polls also have much lower response rates now. We rely a lot more methodologically on corrections.
Elliott Morris: Y'all know this. I'm preaching to the choir. And we rely a lot more on, on modeling and assumptions and data science to figure out what the will of the people might be, let's say, or the pulse of democracy to use George Gallup's words. There's nothing inherently wrong with that, but it does carry some risks.
Elliott Morris: So to pretend like we are sort of distilling from this great, you know, Americans and their pot of soup [00:13:00] and sampling them to represent what they want instead of doing at the end of the day, really complex, big data science we have to acknowledge that we're kind of doing something different than than the tool was kind of designed for.
Elliott Morris: designed for, or at least that the theory of what the tool is doing is built upon. You kind of need, in our modern day, I think you kind of need a new theory built on polling, if you want to make the more traditional normative arguments for why it's useful.
LMM: Yeah, I think this year, probably more than others are gonna be looking at all kinds of factors which are challenges to the field and to the science and art of polling. And I do very much appreciate your thoughtfulness on this because as 538, you do have a big sounding board and You know, I'm glad, the reflection that you bring to this is really pleasurable to listen to.
LMM: And I hope our audience feels the same.
BLC: I just wanted to say thank you very much Elliot, and we are actually looking forward to the second book.
Elliott Morris: Great, okay. I'll try to make some time for it, guys.
LMM: Maybe after November. Anyway, thanks a lot. Appreciate you joining us.
Elliott Morris: Thanks for having me, [00:14:00] y'all.
JWD: So recently, especially if you live in the Northeast, you'll notice, Massachusetts suffered an outage of their 9 1 1 system. And now I live in New York, but I heard about it because I got an alert, an emergency alert.
JWD: You know, you get these things on your cell phone. And I got an emergency alert telling me that New York's 9 1 1 system was fine. which was a little confusing because I didn't know there was a problem. Other people in other states around Massachusetts got these as well. And it got us to thinking about these emergency alert systems and how they work and sometimes how they don't work.
JWD: For instance, we're on the six year anniversary of one of the most famous, which was in Hawaii, when Hawaiians woke up very early to an emergency alert saying there were missiles there. Incoming, which was incredibly frightening. That was a mistake. There were, of course, no missiles incoming, but these systems have been very effective at saving lives in, extreme weather situations, tornadoes and things like that.
JWD: What we wanted to do is get a sense of where they are, how they work and if they could be, you know, more [00:15:00] effective, especially Mary as the weather situations we see get more, more extreme and more frequent.
MEG: That's right, Jay. This question is especially important as we face this change and in climate and global warming. And according to Gallup in 2022, about a third of Americans report being personally affected by an extreme weather event in just the past two years. Now, the Internet and social media is not as popular as traditional media as an early warning system, but it is the fastest growing method.
MEG: Thank you. In 2023, 46 percent of those globally who had experienced a disaster in the past five years, said they were warned using the internet or social media. And that number is up 10 percentage points from 2021. We have all this information about emergency alerts and the scary events that can occur, but do Americans really feel prepared?
MEG: Are they scared? So according to FEMA's annual National Household Survey from 2023, 51 percent of Americans, that's a slim majority, feel they are prepared for a disaster. [00:16:00] However, only 50 percent of people believe that preparing can help in a disaster and we're confident in their ability to do to prepare FEMA says as of 2023, around 83 percent of Americans, smartphones support wireless emergency alerts.
MEG: So the question is, do these alerts actually work? So here to help us hash this all out is Kenneth Gray, a senior lecturer of criminal justice and Homeland Security at University of New Haven. Ken, welcome to our podcast.
Ken Gray: Hi, glad to be with you.
MEG: So let's just start with that question. Are these alerts effective?
Ken Gray: So you may recall that back in October of last year October 4th, 2023, there was a test of the wireless emergency alert system the WEA system. And in that particular case, it was a test to see whether or not FEMA could push out an emergency alert to all the cell phone subscribers around the country.
Ken Gray: And that turned out to be in a very effective test. Millions of people around the country got alerts. Only those people that had cell phones [00:17:00] though got those alerts. So if you do not have a cell phone, most of us walk around with one of these in our pockets. But if you don't have a cell phone in your pocket, you did not receive that alert.
Ken Gray: And so the alert system is effective for some people, but not everyone.
JWD: So this is as we noted, there have been some issues with this. There is also, I mean, cause when these happen, people talk about them and I've heard plenty of people saying, Oh, another Amber alert, another, this, a number of that. Is there a better way these could be used? Are we still kind of learning how to use these to their, to the best benefit?
Ken Gray: If you go onto your cell phone and go to notifications, you can turn on and turn off the alerts that you receive. But these wireless emergency alerts are not turn offable. They go through whether or not you have turned on or off your notifications for that. And so we have yet to see one of these in actuality in a real emergency.
Ken Gray: But it will take a real emergency to see how [00:18:00] effective these are.
MEG: As we went through some of the data, I mentioned the use of social media and the internet. Is this a reliable method of contacting people when there is an emergency? Is this effective as a backup plan? If people do not, I mean, as you most of us have a cell phone that we're walking around with, but for those who don't, is this a viable option?
Ken Gray: For those of us who were in the military, I was in the Navy and for those of us in the military, Two is one. One is none. That is, you need to have backup systems. And so the, we do not have backup systems for all our emergency alert systems. For instance, the 9 1 1 system, 9 1 1 goes down. Is there another backup?
Ken Gray: 9 1 1 system. You can call, if you have a traditional telephone, a regular landline, you can call the regular telephone number for something like the police or the fire department, but only if you don't know those numbers. And it's a question about whether you really want to depend upon These systems to alert you, but you mentioned social media.
Ken Gray: I turned to X, formerly known as Twitter. Whenever I know of [00:19:00] something going on, they get the latest details, but the details are often wrong. So I don't want to rely upon social media to give me the facts during an emergency. It's useful for me because I report on these kinds of things. I talk. I'm interviewed often about emergencies, but I don't want to rely upon that because the information early on is often wrong.
JWD: It sounds like what you're saying, though, is that we are a little bit vulnerable because if we are dependent on social media or we're dependent on calling you know, our local firehouse, or if we're dependent on these emergency alerts, that's all dependent by and large, other than landlines.
JWD: It's all dependent on the cell phone system working. But I know there's lots of security people, military people, intelligence people that have focused in on how that system could be brought down relatively easily. Are we more vulnerable than we think in this regard?
Ken Gray: Yeah. When you rely upon technology, you are setting yourself up for a fall when that technology fails. And our adversaries recognize [00:20:00] that our critical infrastructure is a way to attack us. And consequently, if they wanted to take down the emergency systems like this, they would It leaves us even more vulnerable to attack.
Ken Gray: So absolutely critical infrastructure is something that we rely all too much on to get us through systems like this. You may recall that when 9 11 happened, we did not get notified with the emergency alert system. That was a regional problem. And we still. We're under attack and yet the emergency alert system did not sound for that.
Ken Gray: And so in many ways we are vulnerable to this technology failing during an emergency.
MEG: When we hear about system failures, regardless of what they are and what the causes are, it tends to diminish the public's trust. Why should we as a public trust in these systems?
Ken Gray: Well, that's a good question. We don't have anything else. That is if you look at disasters around the world over time frames, a lot more people are alive today than they would have been [00:21:00] 30 years ago because of our emergency alert systems, not only here in the United States, but all around the world.
Ken Gray: And so while it may not be totally infallible, It still is better than not having any system out there but social media is a good backup while it might not be reliable. It is timely. That's the main thing is timeliness. You need to have information right here and now in certain types of emergencies.
Ken Gray: Hurricanes, you have weeks before a tornado hours before some types of emergencies minutes before. So it really depends on the type of emergency.
JWD: It's funny that you mentioned, it's ironic that you mentioned 9 11. I was a reporter there in New York when that happened. I was at the towers as they came down and our cell phones didn't work. And the only way, and I was not with one of my crews, I was a television reporter, I was at City Hall and the landlines were flooded, didn't work.
JWD: I finally found a truck where we used our You know, radios to talk to the base. I was also in as a reporter in L. A. During the earthquake in [00:22:00] 94 and the cell phone system went down then for a period as well as very early cell phone. I didn't actually have one, but I know that some of the people that I was working with had those big, you know, Motorola brick cell phones, and it was very difficult, if not impossible to get information around.
JWD: So we have seen Yeah. These vulnerabilities, not even that recently, we've seen these vulnerabilities. Is that a big problem that we haven't done anything to address that despite knowing about this for so long?
Ken Gray: Two is one, one is none. If your system that you're relying upon is a sole system and it fails, then you have nothing. But nonetheless, we do have things like social media out there. That is a backup system, even though it may not be reliable, it's still something that helps cue people in that something is happening.
MEG: Well, Kenneth Gray, Senior Lecturer of Criminal Justice and Homeland Security, excuse me, at University of New Haven. It's been a pleasure speaking with you today. We thank you for your time.
Ken Gray: Thank you.
LMM:
LMM: Well It's now a fun fact time. And the question being, which of these smells do you most associate with [00:23:00] summer?
LMM: What a timely kind of question. Suntan oil, barbecue smoke, or freshly cut grass. I feel like there's more options there, but anyway, a national park. poll done by opinion Dynamics and Fox News in the year of 2000 asked that very question. And the winner was by a long shot landslide for freshly cut grass at 60 percent barbecue smoke 25 suntan lotion, 11 and four people just weren't sure.
BLC: I think what's really interesting is actually the choice was suntan oil, and that suggests that this was a poll done a long, long time ago, because even if people oil up, they don't admit that they do that
LMM: Well, that's right. You, you have nailed that one, but what would you have responded to this question nonetheless?
BLC: Well, you know, I think it's funny because this is clearly not choices that you would probably put together if you lived in a more urban [00:24:00] area. These are clearly suburban kinds of smells of summer and and rural smells of summer. But you know, freshly cut grass, I think, would, I would be, I would go with the, I would go with the majority of people.
BLC: I uh, especially uh, in my neck of the woods literally and figuratively I love the smell of fresh cut hay, which happens usually the
LMM: to take a broad definition.
BLC: For the first cut of hay. And it is absolutely just wonderful and intoxicating.
LMM: well, Mary Barb took a swing at urban residents and what they might be smelling. What would you go for in your neighborhood? I
MEG: I think barbecue smoke. I love the smell of barbecues. Especially because it brings back memories of July 4th holidays that we had as a kid and just getting together with family. But I will say that I live pretty close to the ocean and I just like the smell of the ocean and the beach and everything that comes along with it.
MEG: So not really a urban answer, but that's, that would be [00:25:00] my choice.
LMM: we have an urban suburban and we have Jay, a more rural scent. What's, what is in the air up where you are?
JWD: no, I mean, it's yeah, where I am now, except that when you say the smells of summer, I mean, I instantly think of New York City where I've lived for a long time. And the smell of trash, I mean, sorry, but
LMM: Cartoons.
JWD: summer smells like in the hot, sticky streets of Brooklyn. But suntan oil is actually the one coconut.
JWD: Hawaiian Tropic from like the 60s and 70s. Oh God, yeah, that's summer.
LMM: and now we're going to bring in the Youth of America. Not sure where you're going to go with this
HCP: this was a good segue because I have to 100 percent off of what Jay said and admit to what Barb said people don't admit to anymore. And say that I used, And I'm most used to the smell of suntan oil from Hawaiian Tropic, and I'm obsessed with the smell.
HCP: I go cra I can only put on Hawaiian suntan oil or lotion, and I throw a fit if we don't have it. I
BLC: Oh, the [00:26:00] joys, The joys
LMM: I know what your concentration present will be then. I've got that.
HCP: my
LMM: Up in Northern New York State, what do we got up there?
Delaney Hayes: I will also admit to the Hawaiian tropics on tan oil, but I wouldn't
JWD: By the way, I didn't mean to say that as a commercial for that, but it is iconic.
Delaney Hayes: it's a popular brand. Yeah. But I don't think that reminds me the most I would have to say the fresh cut grass solely maybe because I have a big yard. There's a lot of it.
Delaney Hayes: My dad gets busy with that quite a bit. So I definitely say the fresh cut
LMM: All right. And I just asked Delaney, Athen, take us on home
LMM: with us in upstate Maine. I'm sorry. Middle of
LMM: Maine.
Athen Hollis: I also use Hawaiian Tropic, so I'm gonna have to go with
Athen Hollis: the, the scent and
Athen Hollis: oil.
LMM: Wow.
BLC: Wow. That's incredible.
LMM: Who knew?
BLC: What happened to all those you know, forewarnings that you guys are going to end up looking like us?
JWD: They have it with SPF 30 in it. I mean, it's not the OG that we had [00:27:00] when we were kids, Barb. When you, you went out to baste and bake, that was the point.
MEG: But Jay, did you have the reflector, the foil reflector?
JWD: No I didn't need to. I got dark fairly quickly, but my sister did.
LMM: I only remember the Coppertone commercial, which is no longer in vogue. That goes back a long time. Anyway, this has been most informative. And let's keep our noses to the air and see what see what we pick up in the next few weeks. Anyway, midsummer, lots of stuff. Take care. See you next week, folks.
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