Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary may be the clearest case study yet in why primary polling goes wrong. The final Marquette Law School Poll showed Francesca Hong with a commanding lead and David Crowley in single digits. Crowley won. G. Elliott Morris joins us to analyze what broke down, and what pollsters should take from it before the midterms. Then, we dig into America’s long-running debate over the ultra-wealthy. Today’s billionaires may face growing criticism, but polling shows Americans have wrestled with questions about wealth and fairness for decades. And lastly, its AJ's final podcast.
Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary delivered one of the biggest polling misses of the cycle. The final Marquette Law School Poll had Francesca Hong well ahead of the field, while eventual winner David Crowley remained in the single digits. A few weeks earlier in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed eked out a win in the Democratic Senate primary after polls had shown him running away with it. So, what happened? G. Elliott Morris joins the Poll Hub team to break down where the polling went wrong, why primaries can be especially difficult to measure, and what lessons pollsters can carry into the midterms.
Then, we turn to Americans’ increasingly complicated relationship with extreme wealth. New polling shows skepticism toward billionaires and how they accumulated their fortunes, but are these attitudes actually new? We look back at decades of polling on the wealthy, taxes, and economic fairness to see how Americans’ views have changed over time, and where today’s backlash fits into a much longer debate over wealth and the American Dream.
We end by sending AJ off on his last episode ever. Tears.
Check out Morris's Strength in Numbers site and his FiftyPlusOne polling site.