Our new Marist Ohio and Michigan Polls look at the state of the 2026 midterms with Election Day less than two weeks away. We look at our new data on the competitive races for U.S. Senate and governor, President Trump’s influence, and the financial concerns shaping voters’ choices. Plus, we explore the rise of prediction markets, where people can bet on everything from election results to government decisions, and at what the polling shows about whether Americans see it as gambling. And with the postseason in full swing, a fun fact from the archives: back in 1950, how many Americans had ever been to a Major League Baseball game?
Our new Marist Ohio and Michigan Polls look at the state of the 2026 midterms with Election Day looming. These polls now include likely voters, and in both, the critical U.S. Senate races are very close. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are neck-and-neck, and in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown just edges Republican Jon Husted. Among registered voters, both Democrats hold leads similar to what they had in our September polls. Democrats have bigger advantages in the races for governor in both states, with Jocelyn Benson ahead in Michigan and Amy Acton ahead in Ohio. We look at President Trump’s upside-down approval rating, with a plurality of likely voters in both states saying their vote for Congress is mainly a vote against him. We also cover the financial worries shaping voters’ choices.
Then, the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where people can bet on everything from election results and voter turnout to government decisions and military actions, has a lot of people worried. More than twice as much money has already been bet on this year’s congressional races than in the entire 2024 cycle. Supporters say these markets can help predict what will happen, while critics worry about insider trading, gambling, and people profiting from real-world events. Most Americans see prediction markets as gambling, and majorities oppose betting on elections, military actions, and government decisions. We discuss whether public opinion might force politicians to act.
And with the postseason in full swing, a fun fact from the archives: in early 1950, Gallup asked Americans if they had ever gone to a Major League Baseball game. How many said yes? You might be surprised.